End of Decade Review - What Happened - Where Do We Stand ? - Printable Version
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End of Decade Review - What Happened - Where Do We Stand ? - SunriseJohnny - 12-31-2010 08:01 AM
This seems like the ideal time to ask this...
Is anyone up to giving a concise "end of decade" review ? A summary of the state of our planet and its climate
What has actually changed in the Earth's climate / sea level / ice mass / creature populations, etc... since 2000 ?
As I stated when I introduced myself to this forum, I am not a science person, so I will ask in my own way, even though I fully understand that my questions might not be worded in a way that can be easily answered with a quick paragraph or two. Do your best.
I am merely trying to get some kind of overall idea what REALLY happened to planet Earth in the last 10 years. I came here to ask this question since I know I will get the most scientifically-based answer, sans political bias.
If possible, please be brief and use common language. Just a summation. I am not looking for responses that would point to a warming or a cooling planet either, since who knows what some of the responses would indicate anyways. In other words, if earth is experiencing more storms / bigger storms planet-wide than it did in 2000, what does that mean ? For me, I'm not interested in knowing what it means anyway.
This might be a tougher post to respond to than I realize, but give it your best shot.
Compared to the year 2000...
Is the average temperature of the planet any warmer / cooler / the same ?
Is the Arctic ice mass larger / smaller / the same ?
Is the Antarctic ice mass larger / smaller / the same ?
Are ocean and sea levels higher / lower / the same ?
Are the oceans and seas warmer / cooler / the same ?
Are there more storms / fewer storms / about the same amount of storms ?
Has there been any remarkable change in bird migrations ?
Has there been any remarkable decreases in creature (land / water) populations in the colder regions of our planet ?
Have there been any other remarkable changes to anything else related to the situation of earth ?
Anyone up to this challenge ?
RE: End of Decade Review - What Happened - Where Do We Stand ? - Sunsettommy - 12-31-2010 09:33 AM
Quote:Compared to the year 2000...
The problem with choosing the year 2000 is that it is a low temperature point (being at the bottom of the LA-NINA cycle) in a 20 year period.Thus contributes to a misleading warming bias in the future.It is better to chose two high "warm" points to get a more fair picture on whether it is really warming or cooling over a decade or more of time.
Here is what it looks like using two high temperature points:
Or even better,from 1995:
Negligible difference from 1995 to 2010.
I am going back to bed.I will answer others later.
RE: End of Decade Review - What Happened - Where Do We Stand ? - Sunsettommy - 12-31-2010 03:02 PM
Quote:Compared to the year 2000...
To get a better grasp on the trends,look at this revealing chart:
As you can see the decline first started a long time ago.
From HERE.My comments in BLUE:
Why is the Arctic sea ice is shrinking?
Warmer air and water temperatures due to global warming
Annual average surface temperature has increased about 1° C since 1980 over the Arctic, which accounts for much of the sea ice melt. In addition, some melting has occurred from beneath the ice, due to warmer ocean waters. Global warming has heated up both the North Pacific and North Atlantic waters significantly over the past 30 years. Warmer waters have been brought into the Arctic Ocean from the Pacific via an ocean current flowing through the Bering Strait between Alaska and Russia, and from the Atlantic via an ocean current flowing northwards along the European coast.
What Temperature Data Set was used?
Long-term natural temperature oscillations
Long-term natural temperature oscillations in the Arctic may be contributing to the current sea ice decline. Divine and Dick (2006) studied records of the Arctic sea ice edge from 1750 to present, taken from shipping records in the Nordic Seas north of Europe. They found that a natural cycle with a period of 60-80 years appeared to be responsible for an observed advance and retreat in the sea ice, and that this natural cycle might be near its minimum point in 2005. They also noted that the current sea ice extent in the Nordic Seas is the lowest since reliable records began in 1850.
See why longer "reliable" records are needed to see what is going on in the far North? The recent ice cap minimum may actually be part of a long term oscillatory cycle.
Natural wind patterns
The period 2000 - 2007 saw an unusual wind pattern over the Artic, which featured meridional flow towards the North Pole (Overland et al., 2008). These winds transported an unusual amount of ice out of Arctic, contributing up to 30% of the total sea ice retreat in recent years (Kwok, 2008). A similar wind pattern set up in the 1930s, but did not lead to massive ice losses like seen in recent years. It may be that the increased air and ocean temperatures of recent years impeded the recovery of Arctic sea ice affected by anomalous winds (Francis et al., 2009; Overland et al., 2008). Also, Lindsay et al. (2009) demonstrate that the ice loss due to these anomalous winds would have been much less without the prior thinning of the ice--a less compact ice pack is more susceptible to being moved by winds and currents. The Arctic Oscillation is an observed natural pattern of surface pressure variations in the Northern Hemisphere. The "positive index" of the AO is defined when the surface pressure is below normal at the North Pole and above normal at about 45° north latitude. Positive Arctic Oscillation conditions steer storms farther north, bringing stronger surface westerly winds in the North Atlantic and warmer and wetter than normal conditions to the Arctic and northern Europe. The winds and ocean currents during the positive Arctic Oscillation mode tend to drive sea ice from west to east along the north shore of Canada, then out of the Arctic Ocean through the channel of water to the east of Greenland (Fram Strait).
When one looks at the wintertime pattern of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) over the past 100 years, a mostly random pattern of positive and negative AO modes is apparent (Figure 6). However, one anomalous period is very striking: a string of seven consecutive years with a positive AO, including two years (1989 and 1990) with the highest AO index ever observed. During this period, strong westerly winds rapidly flushed more than 80% of the oldest, thickest sea ice out of the Arctic Ocean, leaving most of the Arctic covered with ice less than three years old (Figure 7). Younger ice is much thinner, and melts much more readily. Rigor and Wallace (2004) estimate that at least half of the loss of sea ice in the Arctic since 1979 is due to these six years of strange weather with very low surface pressure over the Arctic. Did climate change cause this unusual pattern between 1989 and 1995? It is possible, but no one has published any papers showing how this might have occurred. For now, the assumption is that this major loss of Arctic sea ice due to wind patterns between 1989-1995 is natural.
Since the strange positive Arctic Oscillation years of 1989-1995, a number of years with negative AO have occurred. Normally, during negative AO years, ice extent and thickness increase in the Arctic. But instead, ice extent and thickness during these periods has continued to decline.
RE: End of Decade Review - What Happened - Where Do We Stand ? - Sunsettommy - 12-31-2010 03:25 PM
Quote:Compared to the year 2000...
First the long time view:
As you can see that not a whole lot of easy to melt ice is available anymore.The main reason why sea level rise has been small for the last 8,000 years or so.The continental ice caps had melted away.
Now to the recent charted view.from HERE,
Sea level has been rising at a steady rate since records began in the late 1800s – well before the CO2 era. Is it accelerating?
The following figure shows global cumulative sea level change for 1900 to 2002 [http://www.wamis.org/agm/meetings/rsama08/S304-Shum_Global_Sea_Level_Rise.pdf]. Since according to the IPCC, CO2-based warming has apparently only shown up since the 1970s, all of this sea level rise since prior to 1970 cannot be caused by anthropogenic CO2, and yet the trend has not increased.
The sea level increase is within normal range.No evidence of increase acceleration is occurring.If fact it has been SLOWING DOWN in recent years.
RE: End of Decade Review - What Happened - Where Do We Stand ? - SunriseJohnny - 01-01-2011 06:22 AM
Wow ! Thank you much for all of that work.
I kind of thought there would be no easy answers to any of this.
RE: End of Decade Review - What Happened - Where Do We Stand ? - Sunsettommy - 01-01-2011 12:16 PM
I made the answers short.I could have added a lot more information than I have.But thought you wanted basic information to start with.
I will answer some of the remaining ones soon.But I am hoping other forum members try answering one too.