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Was Hansen's "Scenario B" right?
02-19-2010, 06:20 AM (This post was last modified: 02-19-2010 06:21 AM by HarpoSpoke.)
Post: #1
Was Hansen's "Scenario B" right?
I've recently noticed an attempt by AGW believers to claim that Hansen's model predictions in 1988 were correct.

As we know, he talked about 3 scenarios: A, B, and C

In the famous speech, he refers to A as "business as usual" and C as "draconian emission cuts". He didn't explicitly describe B in the speech, but at other times claimed it was "most likely".

Since "business as usual" is the best way to describe our path since that time, it's obvious this prediction was wrong. But...AGW believers claim that scenario B most closely matches the path followed since...and that Hansen claimed it was "most likely"....the model is accurate. It sounds to me like Hansen was "covering his butt" with a description of both A and B that could be used in the future if we did nothing. Spray out enough predictions and one of them is bound to be close.

I take issue with the attempt to use extreme scenarios to scare people and then later try to say the prediction you didn't emphasis was right. Hansen used the term "business as usual" in 2007 also. http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/story?i...473&page=1 So at minimum he doesn't know how to predict what that is. Or maybe he just feels like he can pull that description out at will for effect and later claim that was an "extreme scenario".

So I'm curious about scenario B. Was it using the amount of CO2 we emit or the level of CO2 in the atmosphere? If the model was using the level of CO2 in the atmosphere and has remained close, that's a good case that his model was accurate. (Accurate at predicting a correlating...not causal... relationship between CO2 and temps under the rules of their assumptions) But if the model was based on our emissions, then I wonder why scenario A missed so badly. We obviously have not curtailed our emissions. That seems to indicate that we don't know exactly how our emissions will effect atmospheric CO2 levels.

Any thoughts?
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02-19-2010, 04:35 PM
Post: #2
RE: Was Hansen's "Scenario B" right?
This should help you big time:

Quote:Smokey (13:58:32) :

Robert (13:22:28),

As usual, Robert is flat wrong. Getting false information from the realclimate echo chamber will do that. RC takes Hansen’s “adjusted” temperatures which – surprise! – show that he was accurate. But looking at the raw data, we see how much Hansen was off: click

In this blink gif [takes a couple of seconds to load], we see how GISS meddles with the temperature record to pretend Hansen [who runs GISS] was right: click

And GISS shows warming, while the [much more accurate] sattelite records show cooling: click

James Hansen’s predictions vs reality: click1, click2

Ever notice how the alarmist believers always talk about Hansen’s scenario C? That’s because C was the least wrong. From Lucia’s site: click.

That’s called the “Texas Sharpshooter fallacy”: Shoot 3 holes in a barn door, then draw a circle around one hole, and claim that was your target. Hansen’s 3 predictions cover such a wide temperature range, it’s really surprising that he didn’t get at least one of them right. But every single one of them was wrong.

Finally, a WUWT article: Hansen’s models are “Useless”: click

LINK
=====================================================
The AGW believers has no case.

It is our attitude toward free thought and free expression that will determine our fate. There must be no limit on the range of temperate discussion, no limits on thought. No subject must be taboo. No censor must preside at our assemblies.

–William O. Douglas, U.S. Supreme Court Justice, 1952
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02-19-2010, 04:40 PM
Post: #3
RE: Was Hansen's "Scenario B" right?
Then we have this accurate comment:

Quote:WasteYourOwnMoney (14:11:32) :

Robert (13:22:28)

Nice try…. Keep in mind that “Scenario C” was based on the assumption of no increased CO2 emissions post Year 2000. Which of course did not happen. What actually happened with CO2 emissions was somewhere between Scenario A and B.

Just keep spreading disinformation… Someone will believe you eventually!
===================================================
Yup that means scenario C is wrong anyway.

It is our attitude toward free thought and free expression that will determine our fate. There must be no limit on the range of temperate discussion, no limits on thought. No subject must be taboo. No censor must preside at our assemblies.

–William O. Douglas, U.S. Supreme Court Justice, 1952
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02-19-2010, 04:44 PM
Post: #4
RE: Was Hansen's "Scenario B" right?
There are two more comments with links in them that shoots down the absurdity of the claim that Hansen got it right.

I wonder what pill they take these days,because they are so gosh darn wrong.

Rolleyes

It is our attitude toward free thought and free expression that will determine our fate. There must be no limit on the range of temperate discussion, no limits on thought. No subject must be taboo. No censor must preside at our assemblies.

–William O. Douglas, U.S. Supreme Court Justice, 1952
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02-19-2010, 05:59 PM
Post: #5
RE: Was Hansen's "Scenario B" right?
Here is the paper Dr.Hansen published back in 1988:

Abstract

Hansen et al. 1988

Hansen, J., I. Fung, A. Lacis, D. Rind, Lebedeff, R. Ruedy, G. Russell, and P. Stone, 1988: Global climate changes as forecast by Goddard Institute for Space Studies three-dimensional model. J. Geophys. Res., 93, 9341-9364, doi:10.1029/88JD00231.

We use a three-dimensional climate model, the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) model II with 8° by 10° horizontal resolution, to simulate the global climate effects of time-dependent variations of atmospheric trace gases and aerosols. Horizontal heat transport by the ocean is fixed at values estimated for today's climate, and the uptake of heat perturbations by the ocean beneath the mixed layer is approximated by vertical diffusion. We make a 100-year control run and perform experiments for three scenarios of atmospheric composition. These experiments begin in 1958 and include measured or estimated changes in atmospheric CO2, CH4, H2O, chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and stratospheric aerosols for the period from 1958 to the present. Scenario A assumes continued exponential trace gas growth, scenario B assumes a reduced linear linear growth of trace gases, and scenario C assumes a rapid curtailment of trace gas emissions such that the net climate forcing ceases to increase after the year 2000.

NASA
==================================================
James Hansen is way off,according to his own words.

It is amazing that there are people out there who thinks this is validated.

Rolleyes

It is our attitude toward free thought and free expression that will determine our fate. There must be no limit on the range of temperate discussion, no limits on thought. No subject must be taboo. No censor must preside at our assemblies.

–William O. Douglas, U.S. Supreme Court Justice, 1952
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02-20-2010, 06:48 AM (This post was last modified: 02-20-2010 06:50 AM by HarpoSpoke.)
Post: #6
RE: Was Hansen's "Scenario B" right?
Thanks SST!

I'll get to work on forming a nice reply to these claims. Smile

edit: Also...apparently Scenario "B" is now the rage with AGW believers. They claim its predictions most closely match the course we have taken.
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02-20-2010, 07:31 AM
Post: #7
RE: Was Hansen's "Scenario B" right?
Well, of course it is!

They need to grasp and hold on to anything that even remotely seems to match up with reality right now.

I know you think you understand what you thought I said,
but I'm not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant!
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02-20-2010, 07:33 AM
Post: #8
RE: Was Hansen's "Scenario B" right?
(02-19-2010 04:35 PM)Sunsettommy Wrote:  Finally, a WUWT article: Hansen’s models are “Useless”: click

Following a link in that article led me here. It appears to be a "peak oil" doomer site.

Something interesting in point 9:

Quote: About two thirds of the presenters and question-askers were hostile to, even dismissive of, the IPCC (International panel on climate change) and the idea that the Earth's climate was responding to human influences. This was rather shocking to me who knows of several other such scientists but had no idea there were so many.

See how the poor coverage of AGW skeptics has led even scientists to believe there is a "consensus"?
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02-20-2010, 09:45 AM
Post: #9
RE: Was Hansen's "Scenario B" right?
(02-20-2010 06:48 AM)HarpoSpoke Wrote:  Thanks SST!

I'll get to work on forming a nice reply to these claims. Smile

edit: Also...apparently Scenario "B" is now the rage with AGW believers. They claim its predictions most closely match the course we have taken.

From Hansen's own words:

Quote:scenario B assumes a reduced linear linear growth of trace gases,

LOL

It is our attitude toward free thought and free expression that will determine our fate. There must be no limit on the range of temperate discussion, no limits on thought. No subject must be taboo. No censor must preside at our assemblies.

–William O. Douglas, U.S. Supreme Court Justice, 1952
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02-20-2010, 11:27 AM
Post: #10
RE: Was Hansen's "Scenario B" right?
(02-20-2010 09:45 AM)Sunsettommy Wrote:  
(02-20-2010 06:48 AM)HarpoSpoke Wrote:  Thanks SST!

I'll get to work on forming a nice reply to these claims. Smile

edit: Also...apparently Scenario "B" is now the rage with AGW believers. They claim its predictions most closely match the course we have taken.

From Hansen's own words:

Quote:scenario B assumes a reduced linear linear growth of trace gases,

LOL

Just so you know exactly what their argument is...

They claim that whatever the assumptions were, the CO2 content used in that scenario matches the atmospheric content since then and has remained fairly close to observed temps....thus the model is accurate since it was able to predict the temperature based on CO2 content.

If that's true, that's a point in favor of the model. But says very little about Hansen's ability to predict what effect our emissions have on atmospheric CO2.
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02-20-2010, 11:48 AM
Post: #11
RE: Was Hansen's "Scenario B" right?
(02-20-2010 11:27 AM)HarpoSpoke Wrote:  
(02-20-2010 09:45 AM)Sunsettommy Wrote:  
(02-20-2010 06:48 AM)HarpoSpoke Wrote:  Thanks SST!

I'll get to work on forming a nice reply to these claims. Smile

edit: Also...apparently Scenario "B" is now the rage with AGW believers. They claim its predictions most closely match the course we have taken.

From Hansen's own words:

Quote:scenario B assumes a reduced linear linear growth of trace gases,

LOL

Just so you know exactly what their argument is...

They claim that whatever the assumptions were, the CO2 content used in that scenario matches the atmospheric content since then and has remained fairly close to observed temps....thus the model is accurate since it was able to predict the temperature based on CO2 content.

If that's true, that's a point in favor of the model. But says very little about Hansen's ability to predict what effect our emissions have on atmospheric CO2.

That is the best they can come up with?

ROFLMAO!

That is a sign of desperation because it is a really dumb evasion from reality,because Hansen's own paper is specific and that observed facts are not supporting it.

The changes of CO2 emissions matches better with the PDO cycles.

It is our attitude toward free thought and free expression that will determine our fate. There must be no limit on the range of temperate discussion, no limits on thought. No subject must be taboo. No censor must preside at our assemblies.

–William O. Douglas, U.S. Supreme Court Justice, 1952
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