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Tropospheric Hot Spot report
#1
Question:

What is the Troposphere "Hotspot"?

Answer:

The IPCC 2007 report in this SECTION,shows a charted set of modeling runs that purports to examine the level of warm forcing in the Tropical Troposphere.

It was taken from Santer et al. 2003.Where they show based on their AGW hypothesis beliefs.That it is Well mixed greenhouse gases that would cause the "Tropospheric Hotspot".

True the IPCC did not use the phrase Tropospheric HOTSPOT.But they sure imply it strongly and based on their Greenhouse forcing hypothesis.

[Image: figure-9-1.jpeg]

Quote:Figure 9.1. Zonal mean atmospheric temperature change from 1890 to 1999 (°C per century) as simulated by the PCM model from (a) solar forcing, (b) volcanoes, © well-mixed greenhouse gases, (d) tropospheric and stratospheric ozone changes, (e) direct sulphate aerosol forcing and (f) the sum of all forcings. Plot is from 1,000 hPa to 10 hPa (shown on left scale) and from 0 km to 30 km (shown on right). See Appendix 9.C for additional information. Based on Santer et al. (2003a).

To show that they are advocating the distinct warming of the Troposphere due to greenhouse gases.I quote again from the IPCC report:

Quote:Greenhouse gas forcing is expected to produce warming in the troposphere, cooling in the stratosphere, and, for transient simulations, somewhat more warming near the surface in the NH due to its larger land fraction, which has a shorter surface response time to the warming than do ocean regions (Figure 9.1c).


This means that 4 years ago they tell us we should be seeing a clear warming in this area.But for some reason they spend all their time talking about modeling runs,but not about actual temperature data.

Before we go to empirical temperature data.I would like to hammer home what the IPCC themselves say about the charts I have posted above.The chart is also in the link posted below.It is a detailed explanation of the chart in question.

EXCERPT:

Quote:9.2.2 Spatial and Temporal Patterns of the
Response to Different Forcings and their
Uncertainties


9.2.2.1 Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Response
The ability to distinguish between climate responses to
different external forcing factors in observations depends
on the extent to which those responses are distinct (see, e.g.,
Section 9.4.1.4 and Appendix 9.A). Figure 9.1 illustrates the
zonal average temperature response in the PCM model (see
Table 8.1 for model details) to several different forcing agents
over the last 100 years, while Figure 9.2 illustrates the zonal
average temperature response in the Commonwealth Scientifi c
and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) atmospheric
model (when coupled to a simple mixed layer ocean model) to
fossil fuel black carbon and organic matter, and to the combined
effect of these forcings together with biomass burning aerosols
(Penner et al., 2007). These fi gures indicate that the modelled
vertical and zonal average signature of the temperature response
should depend on the forcings. The major features shown in
Figure 9.1 are robust to using different climate models. On the
other hand, the response to black carbon forcing has not been
widely examined and therefore the features in Figure 9.2 may
be model dependent. Nevertheless, the response to black carbon
forcings appears to be small.

The next paragraph is quite specific.That it is the "well mixed greenhouse gases" that is the source of the modeled Tropospheric warming signature.To support the AGW hypothesis:

Quote:Greenhouse gas forcing is expected to produce warming in
the troposphere, cooling in the stratosphere, and, for transient
simulations, somewhat more warming near the surface in the
NH due to its larger land fraction, which has a shorter surface
response time to the warming than do ocean regions (Figure
9.1c). The spatial pattern of the transient surface temperature
response to greenhouse gas forcing also typically exhibits a
land-sea pattern of stronger warming over land, for the same
reason (e.g., Cubasch et al., 2001).

IPCC LINK

Starting on page 674.

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Has the expected modeled warming of the Troposphere,showed up in actual data?

Since they make it clear using modeling run from 1890 to 1999,showing that a "hot spot" in the mid Troposphere should show up.To support the AGW hypothesis.It would make sense to look at the temperature data to see if it is there.

Based on this LINK.It is on page 116 in the link.

Based on the link.We see the HadAT2 radiosonde data on a chart.

The chart is below in comparison to the well mixed greenhouse gas model C:

[Image: hot-spot-model-predicted.gif]

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
To continue the examination of the temperature data.Lets take a look at these following charts.They are from HERE.

In the link.Click on Global Temperatures.Then Global Temperature Trends.

This is the Radiosonde data for the region 20North to 20South.The Tropics region,

[Image: HadAT%20200hPa%2020N-20S%20MonthlyTempSi...verage.gif]

and,

[Image: HadAT%20300hPa%2020N-20S%20MonthlyTempSi...verage.gif]


This is the Satellite data,for the region 20North to 20South.The Tropics region

[Image: OLR%20Equator%20NOAA%20and%20UAH%20MSU%2...201979.gif]

As shown it is flat,barely warming and flat again with the Satellite data.

The Tropospheric "hotspot" is not showing up.

It is our attitude toward free thought and free expression that will determine our fate. There must be no limit on the range of temperate discussion, no limits on thought. No subject must be taboo. No censor must preside at our assemblies.

–William O. Douglas, U.S. Supreme Court Justice, 1952
#2
In conjunction with the Tropospheric "hotspot" claims being made by the 2007 IPCC report.

Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) hypothesis believers have also have stated that a Stratospheric Cooling is evidence of the CO2 Greenhouse warming effect.That they post temperature charts to bolster that claim.

Quoting again from the IPCC report:

Quote:Greenhouse gas forcing is expected to produce warming in the troposphere, cooling in the stratosphere, and, for transient simulations, somewhat more warming near the surface in the NH due to its larger land fraction, which has a shorter surface response time to the warming than do ocean regions (Figure 9.1c).

bolding mine

Unfortunately valid Stratosphere temperature charts are not supporting their claim of a cooling trend either.Not since about 1993 anyway.That is now 18 years.While the CO2 level in the atmosphere has been rising all this time.

This is from the METOFFICE:

[Image: global_upper_air.png]

The next chart was given to me by someone who believes that increasing CO2 levels is causing the stratosphere temperature decline and specifically said so.Unfortunately for him, it shows the same lack of cooling since the early 1990's.Not only that it shows a possible Volcano spike and then subsequent decline of temperatures to a new lower level than before the volcano eruptions.

Large Volcanic eruptions maybe causing some of the cooling of the Stratosphere AFTER the initial upward spike?

The first chart shows it too.

[Image: stratosphere_temp_anomolies.gif]
It is our attitude toward free thought and free expression that will determine our fate. There must be no limit on the range of temperate discussion, no limits on thought. No subject must be taboo. No censor must preside at our assemblies.

–William O. Douglas, U.S. Supreme Court Justice, 1952
#3
The main point of this simple presentation,is to bring up the point that the AGW hypothesis is failing on the basic predictions on what CO2 and other "well mixed greenhouse gases" can do.To promote the positive forcing effect that is continually being promoted.

But POSITIVE forcings never seem to show up anywhere.And there have been a few recent number of published science papers showing that Negative forcings are the predominant climatic feature.

It is our attitude toward free thought and free expression that will determine our fate. There must be no limit on the range of temperate discussion, no limits on thought. No subject must be taboo. No censor must preside at our assemblies.

–William O. Douglas, U.S. Supreme Court Justice, 1952




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