ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

[Sunsettommy]

NOAA

Update prepared by
Climate Prediction Center / NCEP
6 July 2009

EXCERPT:

OUTLINE

•Overview
•Recent Evolution and Current Conditions
•Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) –“Revised December 2008”
•Pacific SST Outlook
•U.S. Seasonal Precipitation and
Temperature Outlooks
•Summary

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/an...ts-web.pdf
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Could be a weak El Nino coming on.

Want to make a prediction?

[Sunsettommy]

I have done some additional reading on the NOAA prediction.It seems that the current data indicates that it will be a weak El-nino.

If true then the next winter should continue to be a cooling trend for North Hemisphere.

[Scpg02.]

Anecdote:

I was watching the show "After the Catch" which is a round table discussion with the Captains from the show "Deadliest Catch". They all said this last opilio crab season, which is held in the winter, was the worst as far as cold and ice they have seen since '69. I think there was an official declaration of that as well but I haven't seen it.

[Mike Davis]

With about 180 years of more accutate data they might realize the prediction only works on the past. The coreing and other research they have done regarding ENSO and Pacific climate patterns show that there is still much to learn but NOAA wants everyone to think thet know what is going on in the past and future. Their web site and latest reports are evidence of finding data to support future spending on that agency!

[Doug Danhoff]

I agree.  ENSO cycles just are not predictable beyond the general understanding that;
La Nina, will usually follow El Nino.... but not always. 
To build anything on that statement is foolishness, as any researcher can discover for themself.

Doug

[Sunsettommy]

[quote author=Doug Danhoff link=topic=13.msg532#msg532 date=1247767360]
I agree.  ENSO cycles just are not predictable beyond the general understanding that;
La Nina, will usually follow El Nino.... but not always. 
To build anything on that statement is foolishness, as any researcher can discover for themself.

Doug
[/quote]

Yeah since we have the neutral zone in between,quite a range between La-nina and El-nino.

[Mike Davis]

That was a recent change when the started useing 5 3 month averages above or below .5c to determine a full blown ElNino or LaNina. The other factor besides the SOI would be the PDO and the NPO. The NPO is a new one for me as I have only seen minor reference to that one. The NPO is the North Pacific Oscillation. I know when the PDO is negative the ENSO is more negative at least that is what historical records have shown. The ElNinos are weaker and the LaNinas are stronger. I have read that there is not enough knowledge for NOAA to accuratly predict sesonal climate changes for the US dureing some of the ENSO states. ICECAP has had some writeups on this in the past.