An example of Post Normal Science from the UN

[Mike Davis]

I found this at Andrew Bolt's:
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andre..._millions/
Excerpt:
“Climate change will displace 25-50 million people by next year. The situation will be the worst in the poorer countries,” says Koko Warner of the UN University’s Institute for Environment and Human Security

I’ve traced the 25-50 million climate refugee scare back to its source and it’s based on no scientific evidence, just guesstimates stated as fact but admitted to be just to focus our attention.

First stop, Koko Warner herself:

    But how can we know that environmental refugees are the result of possible climate change? Dr Warner admitted that with no exact definitions of either of the phenomena, measuring the scale of climate change and estimating the numbers of affected people is “a scientific challenge.”

So not fact at all. A figure advanced to focus our attention. That’s good science, isn’t it? But where did the 25 million climate refugee figure come from? I went to Norman Myers’ 1993 article:

    According to recent estimates there are at least 10 million environmental refugees today.

However, Norman Myers thought that figure to be on the low side:

    (Climate refugees) may now number (roughly estimated) as many as 25 million. Worse, their numbers may well increase several if not many times by the time that global warming takes hold.

So here’s how Climate Warming Science works. A fact in 2009 is based on a probability in 2001, which was based on a 1995 ‘first-cut’ estimate, which is based on a 1993 unsupported assumption (roughly estimated). Ah, science at its best.

[Mike Davis]

I was really impressed by the scientific research that went into the numbers that were announced.
We can call this the New World Progressive Post Normal Science. With the initials BS which better describes  the claims.

[Sunsettommy]

Quote:I’m predicting that by the end of next year the number of global warming refugees will be closer to one - Ms Koko Warner, to be specific, who will deserve the boot from her UN University position for such ludicrous scare-mongering.

I doubt it because she is carrying the scaremongering water for them.

What is more troubling is that she is supposed to be a Doctorate holder writing like that.She should have learned by now to try VERIFYING numbers,before she uses them.

[Mike Davis]

According to Mike Hulme it is ok to use anything that sounds like facts to promote your agenda. That is described as Post Normal Science in his book.

[Sunsettommy]

[quote author=Mike Davis link=topic=186.msg1230#msg1230 date=1250175515]
According to Mike Hulme it is ok to use anything that sounds like facts to promote your agenda. That is described as Post Normal Science in his book.
[/quote]

I call that being deliberately mediocre.

[Mike Davis]

He has been a lead author for the IPCC and is over one of the GB weather/ climate groups. Derek will know more about him or Richard will.

[Derek]

Gulp, thanks Mike.... :o

Mind you the name did ring a bell. Models, East Anglia sprang to mind.
A quick google search found this...
http://mikehulme.org/

Yup, East Anglia (The University of that is), and (unverified climate) models....
Mind you, he does say this,
" I am currently interested in the representations of climate change in history, society and the media; the interactions between climate change science and policy; and the construction, application and evaluation of climate change scenarios for impact, adaptation and integrated assessment.  I welcome approaches from graduate students wanting to study for a PhD in any of these areas. "

Maybe I should sent him an email. I'm sure we could have an interesting "chat" about human history in Greenland and Europe, over the last 2000 to 1500 years for example, Eric the Red springs to mind, as does Roman Europe. Hopefully we could concentrate on the last 1000 years or so............
On second thoughts maybe NOT....