Arctic ice 2009/10

[Richard111]

I am a pathological ice data freak and cannot keep from looking several times a day.

What has been lifting my spirits is the one little arctic thermometer which is currently reporting -38C at 85N 178W.

http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/...ecent.html

The ice extent is bang on track and with the high winds reported this year there has been a lot of compaction. This should show up in a delayed rate of melt next summer.

Keep your eye on Hudson Bay, I think it is about to repeat last years sudden overall freeze up.

Invest in long woolly underwear.

[Richard111]

Amazing !!! Arctic sea ice extent, which was growing at near 100,000 square kilometers a day, has just lost nearly 100,000 square kilometers. That is a gross loss of 200,000 square kilometers. The only feasable explanation is SEVERE compaction from wind or they are fudging the figures.

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

Air temperatures seem to be good and cold for the time of the year. -33C. Still a couple of months of cooling to go.

http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/...ecent.html

I'll leave it a few days and download the daily data and check again.

[HarpoSpoke]

Interesting "setback" for the ice....hmmmm...."convenient" too.

[Richard111]

This slow down in Arctic ice recovery is showing up here:

http://arctic-roos.org/observations/sate...-in-arctic

The two northpole thermometers (link in post above), both at 85N, one in the west, the other to the east, read respectively -29C and -24C.

No ways is the Arctic air melting the ice. There must be a HUGH influx of above average temperature sea water in the North Atlantic. This alone should bring out comments. Can't find anything.

Canada and the northern states of USA down to Chicago (-11C) are having a real cold spell. Germany is due next week. I wonder when our turn in the UK will arrive? Before the end of COP-15 I hope.

[HarpoSpoke]

(12-10-2009 12:40 AM)Richard111 Wrote:  This slow down in Arctic ice recovery is showing up here:

http://arctic-roos.org/observations/sate...-in-arctic

The two northpole thermometers (link in post above), both at 85N, one in the west, the other to the east, read respectively -29C and -24C.

No ways is the Arctic air melting the ice. There must be a HUGH influx of above average temperature sea water in the North Atlantic. This alone should bring out comments. Can't find anything.

Canada and the northern states of USA down to Chicago (-11C) are having a real cold spell. Germany is due next week. I wonder when our turn in the UK will arrive? Before the end of COP-15 I hope.

27° here in Dallas this morning. That's cold for us.

I don't like cold and want it to stop. I realize it is a benefit "politically", but I suspect falling temps will be ignored anyway. I would rather have the warmth.

I wish someone would point out to CNN et al that warming does not equal anthropogenic warming. They seem to loved asking poll questions like "Do you believe in global warming?" as if that means "Do you believe in anthropogenic global warming?".

[Sunsettommy]

[JohnWho]

Doesn't appear to be anything unusual to me.

[Sunsettommy]

Currently waaay below freezing.

[Questioning_Climate]

SST, did you look back over the previous years? I haven't managed to get hold of the data, but going by the graphs and flicking between them, this year has had the about the shortest time above freezing point for the entire record.

[Sunsettommy]

(12-12-2009 07:44 AM)Questioning_Climate Wrote:  SST, did you look back over the previous years? I haven't managed to get hold of the data, but going by the graphs and flicking between them, this year has had the about the shortest time above freezing point for the entire record.

I have no idea personally,but a commentator did state that that during the warmest time in the past,the temperature were always very near the green line meaning that it simply does not get much above the green line.

[Richard111]

Yep. I've looked at most of the archived charts and summer temps rarely go much above the green line.

Have a look at this ice extent chart:

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/cgi-bin/sea...cgi?lang=e

Shows Hudson Bay freezing up nicely but increasing open water at Thule !!!!!

[ajmplanner]

What about ice thickness - the new distraction? Are there any verifiable observations that show that even though ice extent may be more or less average, ice thickness on average has been significantly reduced or is trending down? THis would boslter arctic hystericals' suggestion that the ice cap will dissappear inthe not too distant future. What does current ice thickness measure relative to a long term average?

[Richard111]

(12-16-2009 01:24 PM)ajmplanner Wrote:  What about ice thickness - the new distraction? Are there any verifiable observations that show that even though ice extent may be more or less average, ice thickness on average has been significantly reduced or is trending down? THis would boslter arctic hystericals' suggestion that the ice cap will dissappear inthe not too distant future. What does current ice thickness measure relative to a long term average?

Good questions. I would also like to know the answers. Where's that guy with the ice drill when we need him?

My personal opinion for what it's worth; there seems to have been several incidents of ice compaction due to high winds where normal growth rate ceased or even reversed. See blips in ice extent chart above. To me this indicates large areas, in the order of 100,000 square kilometers or so, at a time, where ice levels will be jumbled up and thus much thicker than normal first year ice. Still a couple of months of cooling to go to consolidate that compacted ice. I guess we will have to wait and observe any changes in the rate of ice melt and what the final minimum ice extent will be next year. I bet a case of virtual beer that we will see a new increase on the last two years.

[Richard111]

Arctic sea-ice monitor by AMSR-E are still showing a hole in the Arctic Ocean ice off Thule in North West Greenland. I am baffled.

Check out Current Weather Conditions: Thule A. B., Greenland

Conditions at: Dec 19, 2009 - 01:55 AM EST

24 hours preceeding Dec 18 max temp -10.6C min temp -19.8C

Is there a volcano under the sea at that position?

I mentioned Hudson Bay in an earlier post; check out the anomaly now! Whoooo.. talk about a "hockey stick"!!

Current Hudson Bay Sea Ice Area

[HarpoSpoke]

That hole looks too perfect to occur in nature to be honest.

[JohnWho]

Is not that "hole" really showing a "no coverage" by instrumentation area, similar to the thin, diamond shaped ones in Russia/Siberia?

[Richard111]

(12-19-2009 06:31 AM)HarpoSpoke Wrote:  That hole looks too perfect to occur in nature to be honest.

Actually it has been getting smaller since I first mentioned it.

So far Arctic ice winter freeze up appears to be on schedule for a normal max ice extent. Still not conforming to a warming planet scenario which posits global warming will show up at the poles first. How long are we expected to wait before "they" admit "they" got it wrong?

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(12-19-2009 06:54 AM)JohnWho Wrote:  Is not that "hole" really showing a "no coverage" by instrumentation area, similar to the thin, diamond shaped ones in Russia/Siberia?

No chance! Click on the link in Post: #14 above.

[JohnWho]

Which link?

If this one - AMSR-E Sea Ice Concentration, that is the graphic I'm describing.

[Richard111]

(12-19-2009 07:07 AM)JohnWho Wrote:  Which link?

If this one - AMSR-E Sea Ice Concentration, that is the graphic I'm describing.

Yep. That's the one. The hole I'm interested in is about inch and half from the pole at 2:00 o'clock.

Interesting to look at the picture again. I notice there is a massive melt back on the north west coast of Svalbard. There must be something going on in the ocean up there.

[Sunsettommy]

(12-19-2009 06:58 AM)Richard111 Wrote:  

(12-19-2009 06:31 AM)HarpoSpoke Wrote:  That hole looks too perfect to occur in nature to be honest.

Actually it has been getting smaller since I first mentioned it.

So far Arctic ice winter freeze up appears to be on schedule for a normal max ice extent. Still not conforming to a warming planet scenario which posits global warming will show up at the poles first. How long are we expected to wait before "they" admit "they" got it wrong?

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(12-19-2009 06:54 AM)JohnWho Wrote:  Is not that "hole" really showing a "no coverage" by instrumentation area, similar to the thin, diamond shaped ones in Russia/Siberia?

No chance! Click on the link in Post: #14 above.

The warmest spot in the Arctic is right where the Geomagnetic North pole is.