Found this nice comment from this LINK
Quote: Smokey (11:36:34) :
Jehovah's Witnesses also predicted the world would end in 1975,and when that failed,they lost a significant number of people right after wards,but the rest continues on despite the evidence that their religion is in serious error.
I have seen that CD phenomenon many times already.
I am still waiting for an actual verified AGW hypothesis paper to show up.
As someone who has followed this site from when it emerged from Surface Stations, I have seen so many commentators post their experiences of the time they changed their minds, due to the rational arguments and facts presented here, that it fascinates me when a few cling to their belief system in the face of voluminous evidence to the contrary. A six year anomaly at one of the Poles, from 2004, is cited as some sort of proof of …what, exactly?
We have seen the progression of those claiming an imminent ice age [when I was a young buck in Viet Nam], to the approaching global warming debacle that never happened, and which then morphed into anthropogenic global warming [AGW], and from there to “climate change” [as if it doesn't always change]; runaway global warming and climate catastrophe, in which the seas will rise eighty feet — complete with maps of the future showing submerged cities. The fact that the rise in sea level is moderating is ignored, as is all other contrary evidence.
Most people begin by accepting what the media tells them, and those with an interest [and especially those with a background] in science look more closely, and find that nothing unusual is occurring, and so become skeptical of the claims of impending doom.
We see the accounts here regularly from those who accepted the CAGW scare, and gradually became scientific skeptics. What fascinates me is the few who see the evidence that the climate is fluctuating as usual within its historical parameters, and then assume Orwell’s doublethink as expressed by his character Winston Smith, who wonders if everyone believes that 2 + 2 = 5, does that make it true? There are actually some people like that. As Spock would say: “Fascinating.”
In response to Antonio San, R. Gates says that changes in wind patterns could also be due to AGW. It’s all AGW, all the time. And all in the Arctic. It can never be admitted that natural variability is sufficient to explain the current climate.
Wind, currents and precipitation all have a much more significant effect on ice extent than a 0.7 increase in temperature over the past century. If not, then the Antarctic charts would be very similar to the Arctic charts, not ‘polar’ opposites.
A hallmark of the subset of climate alarmists who ignore all evidence contrary to their belief is cognitive dissonance, and everything is seen through the lens of certainty — while skeptics simply ask for testable evidence of their hypothesis. Such evidence is, of course, never provided.
As those who are only asking for testable, verifiable evidence of CAGW, scientific skeptics are generally immune from cognitive dissonance [CD], because they are simply asking for reproducible raw data and methods used to construct the new CAGW conjecture. Skeptics didn’t invent CAGW, and they have no hypothesis of their own to prove [despite the psychological projection of a few alarmists who wrongly claim that any statement of skeptics constitutes a hypothesis].
The famous psychologist Leon Festinger pointed out the cognitive dissonance of Mrs Marian Keech and her followers when the flying saucers didn’t arrive as predicted. The failure of her prophecy did not, as expected, cause the group to disband. Instead, they became even more convinced that the flying saucers were coming — an irrational response following the disconfirmation of their belief.
Dr Festinger shows that unlike the average person, those afflicted with CD become even stronger in their beliefs when shown they are wrong: “Show [the CD afflicted person] facts or figures, and he questions your sources. Appeal to logic, and he fails to see your point… Suppose an individual believes something with his whole heart; suppose further that he has a commitment to this belief… finally, suppose that he is presented with evidence, unequivocal and undeniable evidence, that his belief is wrong: what will happen? The individual will frequently emerge, not only unshaken, but even more convinced of the truth of his beliefs than ever before. Indeed, he may even show a new fervor about convincing and converting other people to his view.”
Despite the linking of dozens of charts showing that the planet has gone through identical cycles many times in the past, and despite the fact that with a one-third increase in CO2, the planet has only warmed but a fraction of what is predicted for a CO2 increase of that magnitude [and the fact that the CO2 rises as an effect of warming, not as a cause], some individuals become even more convinced of their belief in an imminent tipping point, runaway global warming, and climate catastrophe than ever before. Contrary evidence has no effect on the CD afflicted. It is simply ignored.
A similar group afflicted by CD was the Watchtower International Bible Students [Jehova's Witnesses], who repeatedly predicted the end of the world in 1874, 1878, 1881, 1910, 1914, 1918, 1920 and 1925. Following every disconfirmation of their predictions, like Mrs Keech’s flying saucer group, the Watchtower followers became even more convinced in their beliefs.
The catastrophic CAGW conjecture is blamed on CO2 — a minor trace gas that is pretty well mixed globally — which would mean, if CAGW had any validity, that the Antarctic would be affected by carbon dioxide very similarly to the Arctic. In fact, there is no evidence that is happening. As harmless and beneficial CO2 steadily rises, the global climate warms and cools just as it always has: click1, click2.
There is zero empirical evidence that CO2 has anything to do with the natural cycles evident. But a subset of those, who have made up their minds otherwise, will never be convinced even if sea ice advanced to the equator. People are evil, and the approaching climate doom must be blamed for the one CO2 molecule out of every 34 that is emitted by humans.
PG sharrow also makes a good point. As has been repeatedly pointed out, the Arctic at the very North Pole has been completely ice free in 1958, 2000, and a few other times over the past century. Yet today it is frozen solid. Did CO2 take a breather? A union negotiated break from overheating the planet? A time out from its warming duties? Never fear, an ad hoc explanation will be provided.
The true believers in catastrophic AGW will invent ad hoc explanations fro the re-freezing of the North Pole, like medieval astrologers attempting to explain the retrograde movements of the planets as being attached to crystal spheres within spheres. That’s how silly their arguments have become. Even Dr Trenberth expresses astonished disillusionment that the data is not conforming to the alarmist conclusions.
All Trenberth needs to do is accept the null hypothesis, because everything now occurring is fully explained by natural climate variability. It has all happened many times before, and it is currently well within the same parameters.
Occam’s Razor states that additional entities such as CO2 should not be included in any explanation unless it is necessary. But the CAGW debate is not about science at all. If it were, it would have already been settled by the normal response of the planet.
It is our attitude toward free thought and free expression that will determine our fate. There must be no limit on the range of temperate discussion, no limits on thought. No subject must be taboo. No censor must preside at our assemblies.
–William O. Douglas, U.S. Supreme Court Justice, 1952