Yes, the Ocean Has Warmed; No, It’s Not ‘Global Warming’

[Sunsettommy]

21st Century Science & Technology Magazine

by Dr. Robert E. Stevenson

(Full text of article from Summer 2000 21st Century)

EXCERPT:

Contrary to recent press reports that the oceans hold the still-undetected global atmospheric warming predicted by climate models, ocean warming occurs in 100-year cycles, independent of both radiative and human influences.

At a press conference in Washington, D.C., on March 24, 2000, Dr. James Baker, Administrator of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), announced that since the late 1940s, there “has been warming to a depth of nearly 10,000 feet in the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Oceans.” “In each ocean basin, substantial temperature changes are occurring at much deeper depths than we previously thought,” Dr. Baker said, as indicated by research conducted at NOAA’s Ocean Climate Laboratory. He was referring to a paper published in Science magazine that day, prepared by Sydney Levitus, John Antonov, Timothy Boyer, and Cathy Stephens, of the NOAA Center.

For 15 years, modellers have tried to explain their lack of success in predicting global warming. The climate models had predicted a global temperature increase of 1.5°C by the year 2000, six times more than that which has taken place. Not discouraged, the modellers argue that the heat generated by their claimed “greenhouse warming effect” is being stored in the deep oceans, and that it will eventually come back to haunt us. They’ve needed such a boost to prop up the man-induced greenhouse warming theory, but have had no observational evidence to support it. The Levitus, et al. article is now cited as the needed support.

LINK

[Richard111]

Seems a bit out of date. Some interesting reading though. Somewhere there is a post about "ocean energy", not temperature, declining since 2005 when the sun went to sleep all of a sudden. It's still asleep.

This quote from SST's link sums up my beliefs:

Quote:So, it is not surprising that those modellers who “need” to get warm surface waters to move into the depths of the oceans, and remain sequestered there for long periods of time, would turn to the physical mechanism of this vertical circulation system. Their hope (claim) is that there can be occasions when salinity, rather than temperature, is the prime determining factor in the density of the surface waters. Then, warm water, made dense by an increase in the sea’s salt content, would sink.

It does not happen!

[Richard111]

Interesting post from William Kininmonth over at JoNova's site:

The deep oceans drive the atmosphere

Quote:Ever wondered how the whole planet could suddenly “get warmer” during an El Nino, and then suddenly cool again? William Kininmonth has the answer.

I did so enjoy reading this. There aint nothing that'll warm the deep oceans any time soon. And if the surface heat warms us up, the deep oceans bring the temperature back down again. It's called "negative feedback", something that doesn't exist in the warmist's vocabulary.

[Richard111]

This post from the link above sums up my understanding:

Quote:Baa Humbug: June 13th, 2010 at 5:24 am

An interesting graphic of the relationship between the Southern Oscillation Index (El Nino/La Nina) and surface temperatures is below, from the late John Dalys site

If the graphic doesn’t show up click here

Regards any “fuzzy” conclusions about CO2s relevance, it is important to keep the following points in mind. (for open minded people only of course)

* The atmosphere CAN ONLY be warmed by the surface.
* 70% of the surface is ocean.
* Therefore the oceans need to warm up first before the atmosphere can warm.
* The oceans ARE MAINLY warmed by direct sunlight, which penetrates to about 100 metres. The “well mixed” area of ocean.
* Therefore cloud cover MAINLY governs how much oceans warm up.
* CO2 radiation (long wave) can only penetrate the top one millimetre of the ocean.
* Other than via natural mixing of this top one millimetre, CO2 has no effect on ocean warming.
* Warm surface waters sit on the top like an oil slick. It is physically impossible for warm waters to penetrate below the ‘well mixed” layer. Therefore deep ocean will never warm up.
* Therefore Trenberths “missing heat” cannot be in the deep oceans. He needs to find another ruse.
* ONLY at the poles can surface water be colder than deep water. This is where surface water sinks to the deep, this is where the conveyor belt begins.
* What goes down here, forces water to come up somewhere else, the Eastern pacific. (Where sea surface temperature can be 8-10 DegC cooler than it should be even though it’s near the tropics)
* This downwelling and upwelling varies from year to year. When the upwelling slows, sea surface temperatures rapidly rise by as much as 8-10 DegC, (El Nino)
* When the upwelling increases, sea surface T’s drop. (La Nina)

So in essence, it is the SUN, the CLOUDS and the OCEANS stupid.
CO2 comes a very distant last.

[Derek]

oh, oh, oh, has Steve McIntyre found the biggest "bristlecone" yet. ?

ICOADS – Hawaii
Steve McIntyre,
posted on Sep 1, 2010 at 8:24 PM

Excerpt,
The point that intrigues me though is the size of the difference between measurement types.
So when one sees the warm recent values (in the period past the 1990 date to which I;ve collated ICOADS info),
one wonders the degree to which the increase is due to inhomogeneous measurement methods as opposed to climatic change.
(That the temperature has increased is not at issue – all that I’m observing here is that
it is non-trivial allocating the increase in the sample average between changes in measurement type and climatic change.

Under such circumstances, it would be nice to consult the land record on the island to see if it can assist.
Here’s a comparison of ERSST3 to CRUTEM for this gridcell (also compared on an earlier occasion).
As readers are well aware, Phil Jones and CRU have supposedly “proven” one more time that
there isn’t any material UHI impact on CRU records, though the non-existence of UHI is not totally evident in this graphic.
Maybe, like Mann’s birstlecones, Honolulu airport is a “sweet spot” for detecting climate change

[Sunsettommy]

From the first post link:

Quote:As an oceanographer, I’d been around the world, once or twice, and I was rather convinced that I knew the factors that influenced the Earth’s climate. The oceans, by virtue of their enormous density and heat-storage capacity, are the dominant influence on our climate. It is the heat budget and the energy that flows into and out of the oceans that basically determines the mean temperature of the global atmosphere. These interactions, plus evaporation, are quite capable of cancelling the slight effect of man-produced CO2.

It seems that it is the Sun and the Oceans relationship,that dominates the temperature changes we see.

[Sunsettommy]

(05-23-2010 11:45 PM)Richard111 Wrote:  Seems a bit out of date. Some interesting reading though. Somewhere there is a post about "ocean energy", not temperature, declining since 2005 when the sun went to sleep all of a sudden. It's still asleep.

This quote from SST's link sums up my beliefs:

Quote:So, it is not surprising that those modellers who “need” to get warm surface waters to move into the depths of the oceans, and remain sequestered there for long periods of time, would turn to the physical mechanism of this vertical circulation system. Their hope (claim) is that there can be occasions when salinity, rather than temperature, is the prime determining factor in the density of the surface waters. Then, warm water, made dense by an increase in the sea’s salt content, would sink.

It does not happen!

He goes on to state:

Quote:The primary physical factor in determining the density of sea water is the temperature (Sverdrup, Johnson, and Fleming, 1943). In the open ocean, top or bottom, salinity differences are measured in a few parts per thousand. Thermohaline circulation takes place where the surface waters become colder than the waters beneath. The large vertical movements occur in polar seas, where accelerated radiation makes the surface waters greatly colder than the deeper waters.

In these waters, surface water temperatures are about -1.9°C, the normal salinity of the water keeping it from freezing into ice. The deep waters, being warmer than such surface waters, rise to the surface, as the upper layers sink slowly into the dark ocean depths. Because only very cold surface water is able to sink, it is simple to understand that the deep ocean can never warm up, regardless of how warm the surface ocean around the world may become. No deep lying “thermal lag” is going to take place. It is clear that there’ll be no Phoenix rising as a haunting specter.

red bolding mine

Gosh that means no James Hansen deep ocean heat is hiding gambit is happening.