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Derek - Sub project GISS.
11-09-2010, 10:51 PM
Post: #1
Derek - Sub project GISS.
Hi All,
I would like to compile a complete as possible set (ie annually, preferably back to the 1950s, or 60s.) of GISS GMT records as released.
Later correction - OK, back to the late 1970s, because (Please see post 6 in this thread) -
" The basic GISS temperature analysis scheme was defined in the late 1970s by James Hansen when
a method of estimating global temperature change was needed for comparison with one-dimensional global climate models.
"
ie,
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabled...s+dSST.txt
Please see attached excel sheet of my slow progress so far...

Does anyone know of such a compiled list or down loadable (yearly) record, please. ?
If not, does anyone have old GISS unaltered data sets as released, that they could send me, preferably in excel sheet/s.
If the data could be in simple copy and paste, and then text to columns "format" (ie Nov 2010 in attached excel sheet) that would be greatly appreciated.
Or you could attach such excel sheets to posts here so I can download them please.

Yes, I am working on something that may or may not bear fruit.
All will be revealed in due course, here, fruit or no fruit.

Update Feb 2011 - I have now found some older data sets, back to 2001,
BUT nothing earlier.
Excel sheet now attached here in earlier excel version (1997-2003).
BTW - Does anyone know how to register at
http://www.asshelmets.com/forum/
(and yes, this is relevant..)

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed
(and hence clamorous to be led to safety)
by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H. L. Mencken.

The hobgoblins have to be imaginary so that
"they" can offer their solutions, not THE solutions.
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11-11-2010, 09:48 AM
Post: #2
RE: Derek - Sub project GISS.
Derek,

make a post HERE asking Steve Goddard to contact you.

I suggest a quick explanation on why you make the request.I think he can help you because he seems to know where the stuff is.

You might also consider asking Frank Lansner also.

Hide the decline

It is our attitude toward free thought and free expression that will determine our fate. There must be no limit on the range of temperate discussion, no limits on thought. No subject must be taboo. No censor must preside at our assemblies.

–William O. Douglas, U.S. Supreme Court Justice, 1952
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11-11-2010, 11:25 AM
Post: #3
RE: Derek - Sub project GISS.
Thank you SST, I will contact the people you kindly mention this weekend.
Work stuff, intervenes at present - but it will be of great benefit going forwards.
Exciting times - I havn't a clue where it will lead to next.

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed
(and hence clamorous to be led to safety)
by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H. L. Mencken.

The hobgoblins have to be imaginary so that
"they" can offer their solutions, not THE solutions.
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02-22-2011, 12:02 AM
Post: #4
RE: Derek - Sub project GISS.
BUMP - REMINDER..
I have just sent this, a bit delayed, but better late than never..
Any help from anyone would be, GREATLY APPRECIATED.

Hello Sir,
I am purely an amateur, but I have an interest in what has happened to the "evolution" of the GISS GMT over time.
In particular at time, I would like to get hold of a GISS data set of monthly means from 1977 or just after.
ie, this but from back then,
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabled...s+dSST.txt

This is specifically because I want to produce the global cooling version from then,
of the global warming version we have now (as described below by Prof Diesendorf).
Please see attached (although very much a work in progress), I hope it is sort of self explanatory.

I realise GISS is a very unreliable data set (and seemingly constantly "evolving"...)
ie,recent GHCN criticisms -
http://www.globalwarmingskeptics.info/fo...-1064.html
and that's the point,
how has it "evolved" over time, does it reflect the PC scientific consensus of the day?
This came to me because of,
http://dailybayonet.com/?p=7902&cpage=1#comment-26151
Associate Professor Diesendorf's words, are well, an inspiration...
" Well, there is a lot of evidence, and, the best evidence comes from the earth's evolution of temperature.
So, if you look at the last 150 years since the industrial revolution you can see a steady, an average rate of growth of warming.
If you average over the last hundred years it's a higher rate,
average over the last 50 years even higher,
the last 25 years we can really see a rapid acceleration in global warming.
So, it's the temperature history of the earth that is the strongest data.
"

I am also aware the Greenland ice core data set (that I use in the attached) is also not without valid criticisms,
(and quite a few chronological errors - but at least it seems to stay the same over time...)
yet it does seem to reflect human known history quite well..

In short, do you have any old GISS data sets of monthly GMT please.

yours,
Derek Alker.
aka Derek at
http://www.globalwarmingskeptics.info/forums/index.php

NB - I would also like to compile ANY old GISS data sets anyone has,
ie,
http://www.globalwarmingskeptics.info/fo...d-987.html
I am now more convinced that the "evolution" of the GISS data set over time could be very "illuminating".

Later version of Excel sheet attached here.

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed
(and hence clamorous to be led to safety)
by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H. L. Mencken.

The hobgoblins have to be imaginary so that
"they" can offer their solutions, not THE solutions.
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02-23-2011, 03:36 AM
Post: #5
RE: Derek - Sub project GISS.
Hi All,
Whilst doing / thinking about something else I noticed on this page,
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabled...s+dSST.txt

the following text / explanation.

" Best estimate for absolute global mean for 1951-1980 is 14.0 deg-C or 57.2 deg-F,
so add that to the temperature change if you want to use an absolute scale
(this note applies to global annual means only, J-D and D-N !)

Example -- Table Value : 40
change : 0.40 deg-C or 0.72 deg-F
abs. scale if global annual mean : 14.40 deg-C or 57.92 deg-F
"


What in heavens name does the note mean????
" (this note applies to global annual means only, J-D and D-N !) "

It would seem to mean that such a "conversion" does NOT apply to the monthly means given, and that it only applies to the two specified columns.?
Not that in the columns specified, J-D and D-N, there is a 40 as given in the example.

Given that wording has been there such a long time, why is it worded as it is?
Certainly summing and dividing the given 12 monthly means for a year does not give the same annual average
that adding the two columns for the same year and dividing by two does.
ie,
Year..Jan..Feb..Mar..Apr..May..Jun..Jul..Aug..Sep..Oct..Nov..Dec..J-D..D-N..DJF..MAM..JJA..SON

2010..70...75....85...75...64....55....50...54...54....62....73....40....63...65​....69....75....53....63

Adding the 12 months and dividing by 12 = 63.083333
Adding J-D and D-N and dividing by 2 = 64
Adding DJF + MAM + JJA + SON then dividing by 4 = 65

What then is the difference between the figures given, in regards of the note?
They appear to (me to) be the same monthly figures just added up slightly differently, that's all.

It does not seem to make sense to me.

OK, for example, J-D = Jan to Dec ie, that years average (2010), and
D-N is presumably the previous years December (in 2009, 60) to November of that year (2010).
So, it is a sort of combined or double year average, as such,
but why then the note?

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed
(and hence clamorous to be led to safety)
by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H. L. Mencken.

The hobgoblins have to be imaginary so that
"they" can offer their solutions, not THE solutions.
Find all posts by this user Give Reputation to this user
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02-23-2011, 05:19 AM
Post: #6
RE: Derek - Sub project GISS.
I have just found this, OK, so I'm being "old hat" as such, but...

http://climateaudit.org/2008/04/06/rewri...ime-again/
Rewriting History, Time and Time Again
Climate Audit Steve McIntyre.


Also of note - Comment D. Patterson Posted Jul 21, 2008 at 12:35 AM

" See the Climate Research Unit, Answers to Frequently-asked Questions

Why are values slightly different when I download an updated file a year later?

CRU answer Wrote:All the files on this page (except Absolute) will be updated on a monthly basis to include the latest month within about four weeks of its completion. Updating includes not just data for the last month but the addition of any late reports for up to approximately the last two years. In addition to this the method of variance adjustment (used for CRUTEM3v and HadCRUT3v) works on the anomalous temperatures relative to the underlying trend on an approximate 30-year timescale. Estimating this trend requires estimation of grid-box temperatures for years before the start of each record and after the end. With the addition of subsequent years, the underlying trend will alter slightly, changing the variance-adjusted values. Effects will be greatest on the last year of the record, but an influence can be evident for the last three to four years. Full details of the variance adjustment procedure are given in Jones et al. (2001). Approximately yearly, the optimally averaged values will also be updated to take account of such additional past information
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/
"

UPDATE - ANY pre 1999 GISS data sets would be greatly appreciated.
I can not seem to find even one.
(Nor does anyone else seem to have any?)
But they must exist..
(Even if the GISS record always seems to have been at least "open" to a "certain bias"...)

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/
GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP)
Excerpt,
"History

The basic GISS temperature analysis scheme was defined in the late 1970s by James Hansen when
a method of estimating global temperature change was needed for comparison with one-dimensional global climate models.

Prior temperature analyses, most notably those of Murray Mitchell, covered only 20-90°N latitudes.
Our first published results (Hansen et al. 1981) showed that, contrary to impressions from northern latitudes,
global cooling after 1940 was small, and there was net global warming of about 0.4°C between the 1880s and 1970s.
"

Size my emphasis.

I also have a "project" to start to show the previous "consensus" best view of what GMT was up to about the mid 1970s..
It should make an interesting comparison, hence I would like as early as possible GISS data sets to compare to this "project",
to illustrate the initial "jump", if indeed there is one, and how later "adjustments", and "corrections" to GISS have moved it
compared to the old "view", and / or itself, if indeed that is what has happened.

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed
(and hence clamorous to be led to safety)
by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H. L. Mencken.

The hobgoblins have to be imaginary so that
"they" can offer their solutions, not THE solutions.
Find all posts by this user Give Reputation to this user
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03-02-2011, 12:03 PM
Post: #7
RE: Derek - Sub project GISS.
Hi All,
Two points that are maybe worth noting.

1) The start date of the data sets appears to change between the 2005 and 2001 data sets I have so far.
2005 onwards start in January 1880, the 2001 data set starts in 1867.
Which has mucked up my excel sheets / workbook a bit....

I wonder do the earlier data sets start even earlier than 1867?

2) I have been using the annual averages to check my own copy and pasting, whilst doing this I have noticed that the averaging used rounds the figures.
I will try to explain, let us have two figures, 10, and 15. The average would be 12.5, but
if you only use two digits then the average will be rounded up or down to 12 or 13. Introducing a 0.5 error to the average figure.

The GISS data sets use a base period, and anomalies, so, given it has been warming since the 1870s then
a later base period in the data set could introduce a biased rounding from one side of the base period to the other.
Is this the case, I do not know. Has this caused a movement of the averages more than it should over the years, and many many alterations to the monthly figures, I do not know.
Is this why monthly figures seem to be altered "randomly" to effect the averages and the rounding, again I do not know.

But these do appear to be possibilities that need to be looked into.


OK, back to copy and pasting in Excel for me.
The sheet is now quite a lot larger...AND, still growing...

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed
(and hence clamorous to be led to safety)
by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H. L. Mencken.

The hobgoblins have to be imaginary so that
"they" can offer their solutions, not THE solutions.
Find all posts by this user Give Reputation to this user
Quote this message in a reply
03-04-2011, 12:45 AM
Post: #8
RE: Derek - Sub project GISS.
Hi All,
I have been continuing developing the excel workbook.
It would appear to me so far that, in the 10 years from 2001 to 2011 the GISS data set has been moved as depicted below.

[Image: GISS2001to2011Diffsjpeg.jpg]

OK, so the above maybe a slightly removed depiction of what has changed over the time period in the GISS data set.
The below is a plot of the difference in each months figure change over the same time period.

[Image: GISSmonthlydiffs2001to2011jpeg.jpg]

It would seem almost all of the GISS global mean monthly mean temperatures data set has been "adjusted" within the time period.
ie, Very few monthly means are on the zero line (unadjusted within the time period).
In fact of the 1452 depicted monthly mean difference / points plotted, only 47 are zero.
These are ONLY the "adjustments" from January 2001 to February 2011...


OK, so adjustments maybe required, but presumably these would add up to a rather random pattern, as adjustments were made for different things, at different times.
So, I thought I would plot the frequency of the amounts GISS monthly means have been adjusted by between 2001 to 2011,
this was presuming there would be no pattern to a simple vertically plotted bar chart as such.
(five outliers [2 + and 3 -] have been omitted by the temp adjustment scaling.)

[Image: GISSadjdifffreq2001to2011.jpg]

It would appear that over the last ten years there has been a slight cooling bias to the adjustments of GISS.
In the first plot this is particularly evident between 1910 to 1940, and from 1976[ish] to the year 2000.
Maybe something, maybe not, but several things occur to me...
(Like having to correct an obvious warming bias in the station selection [GCHN network], so as not to appear too disconnected from reality.)
Would that same bias be shown by earlier data sets, or would they show a warming bias to adjustments?

I have to say that, as "we" are supposed to be concerned about 0.7C man made global warming over the last century or so (or is it ONLY from 1950...),
it would seem the amount of "adjustments" to the GISS data set over a 10 year period,
(commonly as depicted above between 0.1C to 0.2C in 10 years - that would be between 1C and 2C a century, purely man made (and artificial) adjustments),
which does not exactly instill one with confidence in GISS..

Earlier than 2001 GISS data sets could be very interesting.
Data sets from 1977, 1981, 1986, 1991, and 1996 in particular could be very illuminating, I suggest.
1999, would also be very useful to see if the Y2K "bug" that effected the American record, also effected GISS.
I would like to be able do 10 year (and possibly 5 year) and overall plots of the data sets "movements".

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed
(and hence clamorous to be led to safety)
by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H. L. Mencken.

The hobgoblins have to be imaginary so that
"they" can offer their solutions, not THE solutions.
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03-06-2011, 07:11 AM
Post: #9
RE: Derek - Sub project GISS.
The older datasets will certainly be interesting.

"Correlation is NOT Causation"
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03-06-2011, 02:09 PM
Post: #10
RE: Derek - Sub project GISS.
I for one was very surprised by how many (and the spread) of the monthly means that have been moved in the ten years from 2001, to 2011.

One could suspect an algorithm at work.
Why were so many monthly means still wrong in 2001, seems a bit implausible.
I may look into these to see if there is any clue.
I may also look into the adjustments below or above average to see if there is a pattern, or patterns.

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed
(and hence clamorous to be led to safety)
by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H. L. Mencken.

The hobgoblins have to be imaginary so that
"they" can offer their solutions, not THE solutions.
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